Sunday 26 June 2016

Too much democracy?

Is that possible? Two recent exercises seem to suggest that at least it might be. Obviously one took place last Thursday. But the other (which I also took part in) was the Labour party's leadership ballot where anyone could buy a vote for the price of a pint of beer. Interesting to speculate how a different result in the first election might have helped us swerve away from the cliff edge in the referendum...
However, I do somehow feel that the country will cope with Brexit better than the labour and trade union movement will cope with Corbyn - a man with a donnish level of charisma and a political level of intellect.

Monday 20 June 2016

The Arguments are balanced – but the Power isn’t

           Considering where to place my cross on Thursday, I am still unconvinced by the arguments on either side.  The Economic and business arguments favour ‘Remain’ without question, but the only way to meaningfully control England’s population growth is to curb free movement from the European Union. I have three children who may need unskilled work and certainly need places to live. No amount of economic strength is going to create any more land in our country. The mighty housing developers’ pressure on the Green Belt will soon start to win out against the flimsy under-resourced planning system.
          However, this referendum was never meant to happen. David Cameron included it in the Conservative manifesto at the last election with little expectation of achieving an overall majority. He did get a majority, but it is slim. By a significant percentage, MPs of all parties favour Remain. If there is a ‘Leave’ vote on Thursday it could only be implemented if Cameron (or his successor as leader) whipped all the Tory MPs into line. I can’t conceive of that being accepted without a long process of delay and amendment to the 'Leaving' legislation.
         Given the House of Commons’ current makeup, a leave vote, I have decided, would be a vote for political chaos, and certainly would be compounded by an economic recession. We would stay in full membership for a period of some years and during that time any Romanians and Bulgars still weighing up whether or not to try their luck in London would have a major incentive to get on a budget airline. So immigration would go well up before – maybe - it went down. In Britain we have a Parliamentary democracy not a direct-vote democracy. Only Parliament can raise taxes, only Parliament can pass laws.
        If the country votes to leave, I can’t help thinking it would be like a household of three people where two, who are unemployed, want to move house, but the third who has a job and pays the rent, wants to stay put. And it would be much less clear-cut than that because the result is certain to be very close.
        I feel that in fact it won’t arise, that on Thursday we will end up with a pragmatic, unenthusiastic ‘Remain’ vote. But UKIP won’t go away and can only go on to build their numbers in Parliament, both by election - and defections. If they and their allies had a larger coalition in Parliament then I might have voted differently.